Wednesday, March 16, 2011

Still some way before the revolution ...

Please note, dear readers, what you read in our file on the dictators of the Middle East may surprise you. First is the iconoclastic views of Robert D. Kaplan. For the famous American journalist, well-versed in the region, we must distinguish the good from the bad, the enlightened despot of the autocrat bounded.

If the latter deserves to be hunted, the first must have a reprieve, said Kaplan, author of the essay The Coming Anarchy (Anarchy coming). Because, thanks to its policy benevolent despot contributes to the formation of middle classes in his country indispensable foundation for the establishment of democracy.

Qaddafi certainly does not belong to this category "creep". Yet, before making war, as desired by so many intellectuals who flocked to Benghazi, he must think twice, said the Libyan journalist Mustafa Fetouri. Precisely because the country has no institutional basis for moving towards a transition.

Conflicts between tribes are eager to turn back on and the chaos is not far off, says Fetouri, who was last year's Samir Kassir Prize for journalism. (Recall that this prize is awarded in memory of slain Lebanese journalist and historian in a suicide car bomb in 2005.) What is also likely is a scenario in Ivory Coast, Libya cut one in half, Cyrenaica between "liberated" and Tripoli still under the thumb of the Guide ...

Moreover, in 1969, Qaddafi had he not ousted Idris I, a born ruler of Cyrenaica? Do you need more other items against the current? Then read the page devoted to Iran and you will understand that the Green Movement, which has challenged the outcome of the presidential elections last year, is slowing.

First, because it is difficult to define its goals (another election or the disappearance of the regime). Secondly, because the rulers in Tehran will stop at nothing to discredit the opposition. They have just put the secret leaders of the Movement, Meir Hossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karoubi, and their wives, because they knew they could do without the risk of uprising.

That is the problem with bullies: they are shameless and often clever. More skillful in any case that the Brezhnev Mubarak (says Kaplan) or Ben Ali policeman.

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