Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Kyrgyzstan - A year after the revolution, a delicate balance

Here the diagnosis of Andrei Grozine, director of Central Asia to the Russian Institute of the countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States: "I do not support the idea [widespread] that Kyrgyzstan should cease to exist as a state in itself. It is true that there are many problems between North and South [where the protest movement left in 2010].

It is also true that the south is plagued with separatist tendencies. However, this does not mean that this aspiration will prevail, and for one simple reason: the South lives on subsidies from the North [more rich and industrialized]. Suffice to say that the very structure of the economy Kyrgyz prevents the country from disintegrating.

And anyone who openly defend the country's disintegration illico become a political corpse.'s been twenty years since this country independent lives as best they could. But, obviously, the future is dark because of Many problems have accumulated. One of them is the division within the political elite.

The majority of members [elected in October 2010] are the voice of clan interests of the communities they represent. When they say ' Kyrgyzstan ', you must understand that they speak only of their clan. In Soviet times, Moscow was playing the role of arbiter, rounded corners and did not cause the explosion of conflicts.

This is not the case today. In 2010 the country became a parliamentary republic [the first in the former Soviet space]. But when people see that it is now run not by a Bakiyev [former president of the country, brought to power by the 'tulip revolution' in March 2005 and overthrown by a popular revolt in April 2010] but by 120 small Bakiyev [120 members], they probably want to return to the presidential system.

The current political elite, if it wants to last, must learn to compromise, which is highly difficult given the level of ambition of each other. The presidential election this fall could cause yet another crisis [the acting president, Rosa Otounbaeva must leave office Dec. 31, 2011]. As for the Kyrgyz economy, the dispute since Soviet times Tajikistan neighboring republic status among the poorest and economically underdeveloped.

The fact is that states with a geography of high mountains [in the case of Kyrgyzstan] are still economically weak. The absence of oil and gas in the basement of Kyrgyzstan is not the only problem, as claimed by the country's leaders. He has other commodities, including gold. But the gold deposits, such as Djeroï does not meet the state coffers as revenue land in the pockets of the elite.

Today, this elite, eager to aid and grants, wavers between the European Union, Russia and China. The country has entered a stagnation which it is not the end. Foreign debt is growing and soon will equal GDP. Add to this myriad of problems the probable withdrawal of NATO to Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan and the future becomes even more blurred.


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