Friday, April 29, 2011

Hamas and Fatah: a marriage of convenience

It is an agreement in principle but may also be the beginning of the new Palestinian course if your firm leadership finally reconciliation. Egypt has been announced and the leaders have put their signature on an "understanding" but have yet to solve complex issues such as security control in Gaza, dominated by the Islamist Hamas and the West Bank where they patrol the nationalist Fatah forces trained by U.S..

UU. For now, this morning and has left the first deviation from the collaboration of the Palestinian security forces in the West Bank to Israel. Fatah says Hamas will continue, but warns that it must end: "This cooperation with the enemy threatens reconciliation." Although it seems more real than ever, is not the first time the two sides announced an agreement Palestinians and then back down at the last minute.

There is another more pessimistic scenario but true: sign the document but will quickly become worthless. Why now? The two main Palestinian groups do not seal reconciliation through excess of love, but for lack of alternatives. Do not be fooled. Among the leaders of Islamist Hamas and nationalist Fatah continues to reign hatred and distrust, but have come to a compromise of convenience.

Palestinian President Abu Mazen, needs to be submitted to the UN General Assembly in September as "the leader of all Palestinians" to obtain recognition of their state in '67 borders. Joining Hamas, the Fatah leader rules out talks with Israel and get disarm the Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, one of his main arguments: "How can we sign an agreement with Abu Mazen does not control Gaza if and only represents half the town ?.

" The objective is clear and last night said Fatah leader Azzam al-Ahmad: "This agreement is only the beginning.'ll Start with rapid steps to end the occupation and create a Palestinian state." Disappointed with the U.S. president, Barak Obama, and very pessimistic (realistic "?) Before any progress with Netanyahu, Abu Mazen committed Islamist brother taking a major risk.

Since Hamas repeated yesterday that the new Palestinian government will not accept to negotiate with Israel or even recognize this country, the United States can threaten to withdraw over 400 million dollars a year that gives the Palestinian National Authority (PNA). And Netanyahu use as a weapon to any international pressure.

Why agree to sign a document refused to endorse in October 2009? First, because it offered such a role Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak, closer to the positions of Abu Mazen. Second, and related to the first answer because Syria and Iran demanded that Hamas not to sign. The group of Ismail Haniya and Khaled Mashal may be extreme but not stupid.

Notes that the new Egyptian authorities has opened all doors and Cairo can become one of its main allies. Note that the soil of Syria, which has its headquarters, shaking. His protector, Bashar Assad, is now more engaged in violently repressing his people that the Palestinian story. Hamas also knows that unity is what you ask most of Gaza.

"Abu Mazen must choose between peace or a government with Hamas. Include an agreement to end the conflict or alliance with a terrorist group that continues to call for our destruction. This agreement will provide the West Bank to Hamas. I hope the international community realizes" , Netanyahu told his advisers.

The analyst Aluf Ben writes in the daily Haaretz that the new scenario will help: "The Palestinian reconciliation agreement, if implemented, announces the control of the Palestinian national movement Hamas and Netanyahu gives an escape from the mess door in I was stuck due to paralysis of the peace process.

Netanyahu is what I needed to bring Israeli citizens and international pressure to reject a withdrawal from West Bank ... From their point of view all evacuated territory will fall into the hands of Hamas and will become the basis of Iranian terrorism. " For his part, Israeli Foreign Minister, Avigdor Lieberman warned that "a clause in the agreement is the release of hundreds of Hamas prisoners from Israeli jails, which will flood the West Bank of armed terrorists, for which the Israeli army must be prepared.

" The foreign minister believes that the agreement was "born fruit of panic" and that Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas was sustained for years "on Egyptian President Mubarak" and now "fears that the Muslim Brotherhood, the parent of Hamas, has been done with lose power and support. " Assuming that eventually sign the agreement next week, Hamas and Fatah will be joined by the hand at least until September.

Later and according to the UN decision, shall decide one way. Even the most optimistic scenario-Palestinian mainstream recognition of the international community to continue to face state control over the security organs and in the long term, how it should be their future country. "Secular or religious? "Closer to the U.S.

(as you would like Abu Mazen) or Syria and Iran (as advocated by Hamas)? "Armed struggle or political struggle against Israel? Parked questions today to not spoil the party for the signing of reconciliation.

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