Sunday, May 29, 2011

Tie between Socrates and Passos Coelho although the crisis does not come into season

A week after the snap general election, the Portuguese still have many doubts about who the next prime minister. In surveys that have been published almost daily keeps the tie between the two main parties, the Socialist Party of outgoing José Socrates, and the Social Democratic opposition leader, Conservative Pedro Passos Coelho.

In the latest poll, published Saturday in the newspaper Público, the Social Democrats continue to lead but lost away in the last week, falling to 35.8% of voting intentions, one and a half more than the Socialists, which rise to 34.1%. Although he resigned in March, opening the internal political crisis, precipitating the need for external support, José Socrates takes every misstep of his rival for trying to take political advantage.

This week has been the statements of Pedro Passos Coelho on abortion. In a radio interview Renascença Catholic Social Democrat dropped the possibility of another referendum on the law of abortion in society if they claimed Lusa. Socrates responded by assuring that he felt completely "shocked" when he heard Passos Coelho said that the socialist executive had gone "too far" in the liberalization of abortion, although he acknowledged that his agenda does not include altering the current law, approved during the first term of Socrates, after beating them in the referendum held in 2005.

This controversy has become a benefit to Jose Socrates, cutting away at the polls and still remained a chance of winning the next election. However, the president of Portugal, Anibal Cavaco Silva, is not willing to accept a new minority government, so either they expire, Passos Coelho or Socrates, you should find allies.

The most likely is the ultra-conservative Christian Democratic Party, the third political force with more than 11% of voting intentions, who Passos Coelho has invited "formally" this week to participate in their government, even if unlikely to get the absolute majority. Those who do not do the same with the Socialists of Jose Socrates are two matches left, Left Bloc and the coalition of the Communist Party and the Greens.

No one wants to include the socialist political solution to the country, considering that he is responsible for the financial chaos of the crisis and the need for foreign aid, which has already begun arriving in Portugal. Soon it was being discussed during this campaign that the candidates avoid talking about the future and, unlike other times only make campaign promises, conscious of the limited room for maneuver left by the memorandum approved by the European Commission and IMF Change the rescue.

The government that emerges from the elections on June 5 will face a recession than 2% and an unemployment rate above 12% and still have to get reduce the current deficit of 8.6% to 3 % in 2013. You'll need to follow exactly the recommendations of the IMF, which include comprehensive reforms in public administration and the labor market, public sector cuts, tax increases, privatization and a drastic weight reduction in municipalities and state regional administrations.

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