Rightly, most commentators have noted the important progress in the National Front votes in both rounds of the cantons. But in elections, what matters are the seats won. Marine Le Pen had seemed more concerned that, once his father to enter the FN in general advice to challenge the dominance of the two major parties.
FN had never been present in a second round of cantonal, over 400 townships, and, moreover, almost always in a duel with one or other of the two major parties. So the party had never known a situation as favorable to win seats. Since the strategy of the FN was to beat both the PS and the UMP and to end the domination of the "UMPS", cantonal elections were a significant test.
Now almost 400 duels where the FN was nominated, by definition those in which he made scores very important voice in the first round, sometimes arriving at the top of the poll, he won two! Not more than 1998. Suffice to say that the FN will continue not to exist in the county councils. The strategy "alone against all" has totally failed.
The candidate of the left or right opposite the National Front has always benefited from an increase in votes from one round to the other much higher than that, certainly substantial, the candidate of the FN. Worse still for Marine Le Pen, contrary to what she says, the new FN voters, many from the UMP, voters are not removed permanently to the party.
Indeed, the UMP can take comfort in seeing that in his duels with the left, a significant portion of these voters appear to have returned to her. In addition, the duels between the UMP and the FN, a significant proportion of the electorate to the left seems to have voted against the FN is to say the UMP.
All this is very bad news for the FN in the coming elections. Whatever trumpets Marine Le Pen, the FN will not stop tomorrow more than yesterday that one of the two major parties running the country. However, if the FN stays away from political power, it will further increase its power to harm against two major parties and especially the UMP.
Regarding the presidential election, it is possible that the FN candidate arrives in the first round at one of the top two spots. Certainly she has no chance of winning this election, just like the cantonal confirmed, but may, by eliminating one of two candidates, UMP and PS, give the first ballot victory to that of these two candidates remain in contention.
Therefore, both major parties must give priority focus to avoid the proliferation of presidential candidates in their camp. The memory of 2002 must be imposed on them ... and also to their allies! As for the legislative elections, the power to harm the FN in relation to the UMP will be considerable, for two reasons.
The first is that if abstention is high and the FN ahead of the UMP candidate in many constituencies, which is quite possible given the results of these cantons, the UMP can be taken at his own trap, setting a threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to be able to continue in the second round.
The UMP could indeed be eliminated in the first round in these constituencies, duels FN / Left are so many constituent, we saw Sunday, a considerable advantage for the left who would win almost all. If Marine Le Pen's National Front has done a party of government, be it local, its results as his speech on Sunday does not approach this goal.
On the contrary. The violence of speech can only encourage FN UMP to prevent any rapprochement with the party and to rely only on its own strength. This was Sunday night seemed to indicate the speech of the leaders of the majority. Finally, the main objective that can hope to achieve the FN in 2012, is to beat the UMP parliamentary elections, which means give the government power to the left.
But that objective is not very new, it was already the father before becoming one of the girl! It has not been achieved in 2002 because the leftist candidate has been, by surprise, overwhelmed by Jean-Marie Le Pen. But it has reached that goal FN Sunday in contributing to the marked leftward shift in councils.
The "Navy blue wave" is not big enough to overwhelm the "UMPS". But it can threaten the UMP separately or PS, especially the UMP. The FN continues from this point of view a real protest party! 
FN had never been present in a second round of cantonal, over 400 townships, and, moreover, almost always in a duel with one or other of the two major parties. So the party had never known a situation as favorable to win seats. Since the strategy of the FN was to beat both the PS and the UMP and to end the domination of the "UMPS", cantonal elections were a significant test.
Now almost 400 duels where the FN was nominated, by definition those in which he made scores very important voice in the first round, sometimes arriving at the top of the poll, he won two! Not more than 1998. Suffice to say that the FN will continue not to exist in the county councils. The strategy "alone against all" has totally failed.
The candidate of the left or right opposite the National Front has always benefited from an increase in votes from one round to the other much higher than that, certainly substantial, the candidate of the FN. Worse still for Marine Le Pen, contrary to what she says, the new FN voters, many from the UMP, voters are not removed permanently to the party.
Indeed, the UMP can take comfort in seeing that in his duels with the left, a significant portion of these voters appear to have returned to her. In addition, the duels between the UMP and the FN, a significant proportion of the electorate to the left seems to have voted against the FN is to say the UMP.
All this is very bad news for the FN in the coming elections. Whatever trumpets Marine Le Pen, the FN will not stop tomorrow more than yesterday that one of the two major parties running the country. However, if the FN stays away from political power, it will further increase its power to harm against two major parties and especially the UMP.
Regarding the presidential election, it is possible that the FN candidate arrives in the first round at one of the top two spots. Certainly she has no chance of winning this election, just like the cantonal confirmed, but may, by eliminating one of two candidates, UMP and PS, give the first ballot victory to that of these two candidates remain in contention.
Therefore, both major parties must give priority focus to avoid the proliferation of presidential candidates in their camp. The memory of 2002 must be imposed on them ... and also to their allies! As for the legislative elections, the power to harm the FN in relation to the UMP will be considerable, for two reasons.
The first is that if abstention is high and the FN ahead of the UMP candidate in many constituencies, which is quite possible given the results of these cantons, the UMP can be taken at his own trap, setting a threshold of 12.5% of registered voters to be able to continue in the second round.
The UMP could indeed be eliminated in the first round in these constituencies, duels FN / Left are so many constituent, we saw Sunday, a considerable advantage for the left who would win almost all. If Marine Le Pen's National Front has done a party of government, be it local, its results as his speech on Sunday does not approach this goal.
On the contrary. The violence of speech can only encourage FN UMP to prevent any rapprochement with the party and to rely only on its own strength. This was Sunday night seemed to indicate the speech of the leaders of the majority. Finally, the main objective that can hope to achieve the FN in 2012, is to beat the UMP parliamentary elections, which means give the government power to the left.
But that objective is not very new, it was already the father before becoming one of the girl! It has not been achieved in 2002 because the leftist candidate has been, by surprise, overwhelmed by Jean-Marie Le Pen. But it has reached that goal FN Sunday in contributing to the marked leftward shift in councils.
The "Navy blue wave" is not big enough to overwhelm the "UMPS". But it can threaten the UMP separately or PS, especially the UMP. The FN continues from this point of view a real protest party!
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