Saturday, May 28, 2011

RUSSIA - A party for Medvedev, another one for Putin

In today's world, when one is weak, there is always someone to want to dictate your politics, "warned Prime Minister Vladimir Putin to the Duma in presenting his report on government activity [20 April]. Informed observers have not failed to see a call to rally around the party plan [United Russia], since only the union would force.

But the power he intends to defend at all costs the monopoly of United Russia? This party is he able to defend itself positions of power, convene and expand what was formerly the "voting age" of Putin? It is not safe. With the approach of parliamentary elections in December, the country should see a new tandem, this time consisting of both political parties.

One of the latest polls Institute Obchtchestvennoïé mnenié [Opinion Polls] shows a drop in popularity of power as a whole and each of its components in particular. Since January 2010, the popularity of President Medvedev has risen from 62% to 46%, and Prime Minister from 69% to 53%. Confidence United Russia has never been reduced, with only 44% support, 38% of respondents do not trust the government, against 29% in January 2010.

This time, the power low enough to start his electoral conquest. The main boost to the campaign of United Russia should be the decision of Vladimir Putin to top the list. According to Dmitry Orlov, director of the Agency communications and economic policies, "the party should win the majority of parliamentary seats, but do not reach the qualified majority".

So, if Putin wants to keep control at its disposal today the Parliament, he will change the existing political models. It has therefore no alternative but to form a tandem with the second party of power, which could be cut to measure for Dmitry Medvedev. The only party capable of playing this role would Spravedlivaïa Rossia [Just Russia], provided it makes a change of style, not just leaders.

Created by the Kremlin as a counterweight to the Communist Party, Just Russia was supposed to contain the PC on the left flank. Yet Russia was just so well suited to its role as an opposition party that he eventually came down hard on United Russia, which was supposed to be an ally, and take her voice.

Capitalism and redistribution According Valery Fyodorov, who heads the Institute for the Study of public opinion, while it should get sorted pretty quickly. Several things are already moving in this direction. And Sergei Mironov, Chairman of the Council of Federation [Senate], left the head of Fair Russia, which resembles a first step towards reconciliation.

The party would then know reformatting ideological, with less populist left and more liberal ideas, to counteract the conservatism of United Russia. Just Russia will also have to find a new face, which could be, even if only formally, that of President Medvedev. The party would win the vote and Medvedev would inherit a party already established and implemented throughout the country.

It would add the warranty to be represented in the Duma. In tandem [with Putin as he] would make him more relaxed on the examination of the issue of candidacy for the presidency [March 2012]. For the power itself, a tandem of two parties is necessary anyway because if United Russia fails to reach a qualified majority in December, the "minority shareholder" will support him.

The ideological platform of the two-party system is ready. In his report to the Duma, Vladimir Putin has made clear vision shared by the government and the current parliamentary majority. As the political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky, it is a "state capitalism associated with a block social and distributive strong." The Kremlin's reaction was swift.

Arkady Dvorkovich, presidential adviser, began an immediate controversy with Vladimir Putin. For him, modernization [workhorse Medvedev] of the economy should not be regarded as a slow gradual evolution, but as a reform of all institutions. The adviser added, however, that the Kremlin and the government had no major disagreements about the overall goals of development.

From there, it becomes credible to form two political forces that do not injure each other too, while appearing different in the eyes of voters. Just to convince voters he is not a "fixed share" extra, and two different conceptions of national development will be well represented in government.

In doing so, it will avoid pushing up a divorce within the ruling elite. Two models, a strategy Vladislav Inozemtsev, director of the Center for the Study of postindustrial society, believes that "Putin's policy is to perpetuate the system of government of the country and its economic structure." Gleb Pavlovsky think the Achilles heel of Medvedev is in his conception of modernization, which has not conquered the minds of the dependent categories of the state.

"We must reassure those who fear losing their social benefits because of a modernization that they do not see what it means." The interdependence of these two strategies would help preserve the pair of cracks. "Each of the two allies," says Gleb Pavlovsky, will protect the interests of others and especially the interests of social groups that follow them.

"In this context, voters will participate in the casting of models for developing countries, parties carry them and thus their potential leaders who aspire to the speaker's chair. One of them will necessarily preferred by voters.

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