Sunday, February 27, 2011

No-fly zone over Libya: Open questions for May and Can

NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen: would a no-fly zone over Libya fall within the range of uses of NATO on Tuesday the Deputy Chief of Mission of the Libyan UN Mission in New York was still a lonely furrow: Ibrahim Dabbashi spoke of an "incipient genocide" in his home . The United Nations called for the renegade diplomat should adopt a no-fly zone over Libya.

Alarmed by reports that Gaddafi's air force has bombed protesters, others have joined the appeal: the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights Pillay, former British Foreign Secretary Owen and - most important voice than before - French President Sarkozy. On Thursday evening, called the White House spokesman as a no-fly zone option that is on the table.


" If they seriously considered, as of and for the community but some sensitive political and military issues. First, the legal basis of an operation would be clarified. The establishment of a no-fly zone reaches deep into the sovereignty of a state. The intervening forces must win the air superiority to protect themselves from attacks and intercept enemy aircraft.

It is therefore to armed action to enforce peace under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter. "The establishment of a no-fly zone is in the logic of the responsibility to protect, reclaim the United Nations itself," says John Varwick, a political scientist at the University of Erlangen. The UN Security Council recalls in his (non-binding) press release on Tuesday of this concept, the rank of international law is controversial.

Markus Kaim, an expert on security policy at the Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP), speaks more cautious: "Some armed attacks on civilians are insufficient to support an intervention is not enough. The situation in Libya is not comparable to the genocide in Rwanda "Kaim detects no threat to international peace".

That would only be given if Gaddafi attacking neighboring countries or to intervene on its own "Such a case is conceivable. Egypt or Algeria could be tempted to send its own troops into the neighboring country - especially if the swelling refugee flows and create a power vacuum there. The question of the responsibility to protect in turn would make differently if Gaddafi urged his air force to the targeted bombing of cities in the East, are no longer controlled by his troops.

If the community actually agree on the UN Security Council to establish a protection zone, remains the great military question: Who would enforce it? "The EU is not in a position. no-fly zones are part of the operational spectrum of their rapid reaction forces, "says SGP specialist Kaim," it would be contrary to all the NATO ".

The Alliance has ever been, between 1993 and 1995, enforced a no-fly zone over Bosnia (Operation Deny Flight). While at the time took a half years, was until the enforcement by the United Nations imposed no-fly military alliance could now act faster: With the "NATO Response Force (NRF), it has all the skills - even if they have never a violent conflict have been used.

The NRF is a permanently available, multinational force of up to 25,000 men, consisting of variable modules of Army, Navy and Air Force. The NATO states to report for quotas, they train specifically and then hold for six months in the highest readiness. The NRF is able to more than 14,000 men in five days and 30 days warning to lay hold without further support in action.

"The establishment of a no-fly zone fits into the full range of tasks of the NRF," said a NATO military. For a country like Libya - five times the size of Germany, but with a strong concentration of population in the Mediterranean - are needed about 100 to 150 flights of combat aircraft per day.

The full contingent of the Air Force task force can, according to NATO with 5,500 lift up to 200 flights a day. "Air interdiction", the full control of the airspace is one, specifically for use spectrum. The units are trained to conquer the airspace off command and control centers and combat ground targets.

The maritime component of the NRF consists of an aircraft carrier group (including submarines, frigates, minesweepers and landing craft) with up to 6,300 soldiers. Both the Brussels NATO headquarters and at subordinate commands authorities stated previously, there are no plans for a no-fly zone over Libya.

Attention is drawn to the dangers of a possible application. Libya has an impressive number of ground-air missiles and fighter aircraft, and partly offered today. Objectives must be bombed to the ground, civilians may be harmed. Experts point to unintended consequences: the population is clustered behind Gaddafi, when American bombers appear in the sky? "Anti-Americanism is strong, especially in Libya," says political scientist Varwick.

Also teaches the example of Bosnia, that a no-fly zone not only protects the people: the massacre at Srebrenica could not prevent the 1995 NATO fighter aircraft.

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