Sunday, February 27, 2011

The conservative Enda Kenny would win in Ireland but would not achieve an absolute majority

The Irish voted on Friday for change. This is confirmed by the only poll to exit polls commissioned by the Irish public broadcaster unveiled a few minutes before the start of the recount in 43 constituencies in the country. The survey sheds no big surprises: the election the Conservatives would have won the Fine Gael but without an absolute majority and its leader Enda Kenny should negotiate his position to govern.

The survey, which hit bottom in 2007 by 99%, including this time some very striking figures. For example, the rise of Labour's Eamon Gilmore, who achieved 20.5%. That is, the best result in its history. Or the rise of independent candidates would get 15.5% of the votes reflect the anger in the political citizen.

But undoubtedly the most striking feature of the survey is the collapse of the Fianna Fáil, the party that has dominated Irish politics for eight decades and which has ruled continuously in the last 14 years. According to figures from the survey, its candidate Michael Martin would only have managed to retain 15.1% of the vote.

A paltry figure when you consider that in 2007 reached 41.5% and have not fallen from 39% in any general election. The survey certifies the moderate rise of Sinn Fein, whose leader Gerry Adams for the first time seeks a seat in Parliament in Dublin. The Republicans achieved a 10% of the votes and could double or even triple its parliamentary representation.

The Greens, however, might pay support for the government with the loss of six seats. Pending the count, the political scientist Michael Marsh has advanced a possible translation of the outcome in seats. The Fine Gael achieved and Labour 72 members, 38. The Fianna Fáil would take 20 to Sinn Féin, 15.

The other 21 would go to independent candidates. Final figures will not be known until this afternoon. And not just because the polls have not opened until this morning. Also on the complex Irish electoral system, inviting voters to number candidates. Pending the outcome the fine print, all assume that the conservative rule Enda Kenny.

Your profile does not inspire confidence in the Irish, who will criticize her inexperience in the work of government. But it has managed to capitalize on discontent with the ruling party and polling places it on the verge of an absolute majority. Kenny The program is very similar to the outgoing Executive.

Is committed to maintaining the amount of the adjustment plan and also to accept the assumptions underlying the European rescue, while insisting it wants to renegotiate your interest rate. But their proposals seasoned populist measures as the abolition of the Senate, reducing the number of elected officials and the reduction of VAT to create jobs.

Its natural partners are Labour's Eamon Gilmore. A party that combines the support abortion or gay marriage with far more conservative assumptions in economic affairs. The alliance did not work between 1994 and 1997. But this time it may be easier: both parties have more harmony and less room to maneuver.

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