Sunday, February 27, 2011

IRELAND - Go vote and then return to tighten their belts

Hope, integrity and realistic promises are rare commodities in the Republic of Ireland, who will know her 31es February 25 parliamentary elections. However, the anger swells. During the heyday of the Celtic Tiger, the Irish had felt rich for the first time in their history. But the tiger declined and then collapsed.

The new government will inherit huge debt, caused mainly by banks and property developers addicted to speculation, debts that the state guarantees, which would necessarily lead to its bankruptcy. For many, the cessation of payment is inevitable, even desirable. No riot has broken out, but a dull anger brewing in the streets of central Dublin.

Results accrued in advance are strange times to organize a campaign apparently normal: the economic crisis now merges with the crisis of political confidence, as the debts of companies with that of the state. Irish banks, on land, like their British counterparts - and worse. The explosion of the housing bubble, like the United States, resulted in an increase of abandoned land and properties of ghosts, except that this country has only 4.5 million inhabitants and a GDP of about 150 billion pounds [180 billion].

The debate on budget cuts is anxious and keen, the distrust of politicians and bankers, deep, not to mention corruption. Suicides are increasing among young people, and most tragic of Irish exports, that of his people, is rising again - already 100 000 people since the collapse. The angry voters should hurry up in the polls for a result a foregone conclusion.

At the meeting of 9 March to the Dail Eireann [National Assembly], the 166 Teachta Dala [members] will elect as Prime Minister Enda Kenny, uncharismatic leader of Fine Gael, who speaks English marked by the accent County Mayo. He will succeed Brian Cowen, deeply discredited representative of Fianna Fáil, who was finance minister from 2004 to 2008, then Taoiseach [Prime Minister] to this day - a Gordon Brown Irish.

Who says? Not only experts and pollsters, who give the Fine Gael 35% of voting intentions against 22% for Labour. Fianna Fáil in power himself acknowledges that the dice are thrown. So held last week Brian Lenihan, the outgoing Finance Minister, breaking dramatically with that tradition from which prohibits election loser.

Indeed, Fianna Fáil does not even have the 83 candidates that he would have hoped for a majority in the Assembly. One of the most successful political parties of the twentieth century in Europe saw the unthinkable: a collapse so that he can no longer fall back on the basis of its electorate.

Micheál Martin, the bleak new president of Fianna Fáil, reiterated that the cuts are the quickest way to revive growth and thus able to repay the debt of 85 billion owed by the country towards the EU and the IMF . But his party, which promises to reform the electoral system and political patronage which he used for decades, capped at 14% of the vote and could end up with a rump of 25 MPs representation.

What about Enda Kenny, the proud inheritor of this mess? He dodged the big televised debate recently held on the grounds that its leader, the legendary and acerbic journalist Vincent Browne, suggested he go and put a bullet in the head - but the real reason lies elsewhere: he spends so much badly on TV that, at a recent press conference, journalists applauded for having responded to a difficult question.

Anyway, he was elected and he has participated in three televised debates, including one in Gaelic, where he demonstrated a greater eloquence. Unemployment rate: 13.4% Male naturally gentle, who was a teacher before entering parliament in 1975, Enda Kenny, 59, will have upon taking office to prepare for a grueling series of summits Europe.

Ally for Labour to govern, he will have an electoral mandate to try to renegotiate the interest rate on loans made to Ireland and to reschedule payments. While 439,000 Irish people are unemployed, or 13.4% of assets, employment is the number one concern. But voters Angela Merkel are also angry, and the new Irish Prime Minister will be pressed to end the corporate tax of 12.5% so attractive to companies worldwide - and whose continuation is non-negotiable for all Irish parties.

However, even if Sinn Féin calls for the unilateral termination of the debt and further loans, critics of Enda Kenny already know that Ireland is too small to achieve anything within the European Union if it is isolated. The country will seek allies among the other Europeans in debt, like Greece and Portugal, and will try to attract sympathy.

For, if there is one thing Ireland needs is very compassionate.

No comments:

Post a Comment