Sunday, April 24, 2011

Socrates raises in polls

The puzzle is further complicated Portuguese. Polls smiling prime minister, socialist Jose Socrates, two weeks after I had to ask the international rescue. All recent surveys agree that the conservative Passos Coelho loses bellows and Socrates is recovered before the legislative elections of 5 June. This surprising development is because the speech may be catching on victims of the government and the chain of errors from the opposition, while not yet know the sacrifices that involve budget external assistance.

And himself on April 6, the day in which Socrates gave up and accepted the external intervention came a Catholic University poll in which the advantage of the conservative Social Democratic Party (PSD) on the Socialist Party (PS ) was reduced from 14 to 6 points. It was hoped that the rescue again widen the gap, but polls published after the recovery confirmed socialist.

The latter, in Eursondagen, published yesterday by the weekly Expresso, attributed the vote PSD estimate of 36.3%, 32.7% for the PS, so that the difference fell 6.9 points to 3.6 . There is even a poll of Markeset, which puts the PS in front, with eight points more than the PSD. But the last survey of this company was 23 points ahead of the Conservatives, which invites its predictions with caution.

If you take the whole of the last polls Portuguese, it is observed that the PSD moves between 35% and 39% of the vote and the estimation of PS, between 30% and 36%. The conclusion is that the elections would be open and that the dream of a Conservative majority vanishes. Even it would be difficult to govern with the other right-wing party, the CDS, which reopens the discussion of the grand coalition of the PSD and the Socialists was not possible in 2009, when Socrates lost its absolute majority.

"The PSD is paying for their mistakes," says António Costa Pinto, professor of political science at the University of Lisbon, who believes that Socrates is very difficult, as it believes that international intervention will involve a hard adjustment. At the moment nothing is known of the rescue plan to negotiate these days in Lisbon the European Central Bank, the European Commission and the IMF.

Yes we have known details about the fall of the socialist government in March. The conservative Passos Coelho had to admit that Socrates met Eve in Brussels that the present plan was subsequently rejected by Parliament Luso, prompting the resignation of the government and precipitated a call for help.

Thus, gaining weight version of Socrates that the opposition was irresponsible and lose credit Passos's thesis that the Government acted on his back to the country. If Socrates govern with the same skill with political maneuvering, Portugal may be a different situation today. The Iberian neighbor living moments of great national confusion that has grown by the advance of the extreme right is opposed to Finnish rescue Portugal.

Portugal would be a sick right now the doctors are saying that one year will have an operation, as were his roommates, Greece and Ireland, but the health of both improved. And at this time Portugal is in the operating room, sedated, while surgeons in Europe and the IMF reviewed its innards before starting to cut.

When you leave the operating table will tell if you have to leave the alcohol, snuff, meat or salt, that is, what conditions will the fiscal adjustment plan, which should materialize in the next three weeks. And then, Portugal has to vote. Why the electoral scene is very volatile. In addition, Finland has introduced a new element of uncertainty, which involves the completion of the rescue.

In the media these days is recalled lusos sending humanitarian aid when Finland was invaded by the Soviet Union in 1940. It was an own initiative of the dictatorship of the Estado Novo of Salazar, who regarded Stalin as the great enemy, and had the satisfaction of the Nazis. George Winekelman, Finnish diplomat in Spain and Portugal, published in 1940 a letter of thanks to the Diário de Notícias in which it proclaimed on the transmission of clothing and food, "the Finnish people will never forget the nobility of this attitude." Besides the ideological coincidence, this solidarity movement occurs in Portugal as a show of brotherhood between two small European nations.

At present, the gross domestic product of Finland and Portugal is about equal, but the former has half the population, so per capita income is doubled. Amid the anxiety, Portugal only finds solace in the great national obsession, football, thanks to three teams lusos, Braga, Porto and Benfica, played, along with Villarreal, the semifinals of the European League.

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