The annus horribilis election of Angela Merkel has started in Hamburg. His party, the CDU, the government has lost more than half of its electorate in the city state. It was the first in a series of seven regional consultations that Germany will meet this year, many with poor prognosis for the CDU. The big winner was the SPD that the government does with it is up 16 points, hovering around 50% of the votes and an absolute majority.
But the situation contains a deceptive mirage. For social democrats elections recorded the best performance in decades and for conservatives, who have earned a 20.8%, the worst in 17 years, however the situation is misleading, because the crisis of the SPD is more serious than the conservative.
Hamburg results not only can not be extrapolated to the national trend, where the CDU continues to lead in voting intentions clearly, they are dangerous because a social invitation in free fall complacent and more of the same. The election in the Hanseatic city does not reflect the deep crisis in the SPD, but rather, suggests that all is well in the game in 2009 nationally registered its worst election result in 60 years (23%), which is not need to change anything in your policy.
The Social Democrat leader in Hamburg is Olaf Scholz, a man of the right of the party who served as secretary general with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the manager to swallow a reluctant militancy social program cuts than that, the Agenda 2010, which is what that is the source of the crisis of the SPD.
Scholz's victory apparently denied that the SPD bleeding due to the neglect of traditional social policy, which was the ferment of their social base. It is an invitation to continue the current game in which the social conservatives argue with on the best way to trim the welfare state, which the SPD began when I was in government, instead of practicing an opposition.
The reality is that the victory of Hamburg has more to do with a loss of confidence in the CDU and its candidate, Christoph Ahlhausen that a characteristic of the social success. The Conservatives suffered when its leader and integrator popular Mayor Ole von Beust president, who ruled with the Greens, retired.
Either way, the SPD has managed 64 seats, three above the absolute majority, the CDU 27, Green 14, Die Linke 8 and the Liberals (FDP) 8. In the previous elections in Hamburg, the CDU won 42.6% and 34.1% SPD. The victory allows the opposition to Merkel to block the legislation in the Bundesrat, the federal chamber.
The real danger to the Chancellor is that the track is repeated on March 27, losing the government of Baden Württemberg for the first time in 58 years, this time with the greens as beneficiaries. If that happened, Merkel pressure to yield the leadership of his party might be irresistible. 
But the situation contains a deceptive mirage. For social democrats elections recorded the best performance in decades and for conservatives, who have earned a 20.8%, the worst in 17 years, however the situation is misleading, because the crisis of the SPD is more serious than the conservative.
Hamburg results not only can not be extrapolated to the national trend, where the CDU continues to lead in voting intentions clearly, they are dangerous because a social invitation in free fall complacent and more of the same. The election in the Hanseatic city does not reflect the deep crisis in the SPD, but rather, suggests that all is well in the game in 2009 nationally registered its worst election result in 60 years (23%), which is not need to change anything in your policy.
The Social Democrat leader in Hamburg is Olaf Scholz, a man of the right of the party who served as secretary general with Chancellor Gerhard Schröder and the manager to swallow a reluctant militancy social program cuts than that, the Agenda 2010, which is what that is the source of the crisis of the SPD.
Scholz's victory apparently denied that the SPD bleeding due to the neglect of traditional social policy, which was the ferment of their social base. It is an invitation to continue the current game in which the social conservatives argue with on the best way to trim the welfare state, which the SPD began when I was in government, instead of practicing an opposition.
The reality is that the victory of Hamburg has more to do with a loss of confidence in the CDU and its candidate, Christoph Ahlhausen that a characteristic of the social success. The Conservatives suffered when its leader and integrator popular Mayor Ole von Beust president, who ruled with the Greens, retired.
Either way, the SPD has managed 64 seats, three above the absolute majority, the CDU 27, Green 14, Die Linke 8 and the Liberals (FDP) 8. In the previous elections in Hamburg, the CDU won 42.6% and 34.1% SPD. The victory allows the opposition to Merkel to block the legislation in the Bundesrat, the federal chamber.
The real danger to the Chancellor is that the track is repeated on March 27, losing the government of Baden Württemberg for the first time in 58 years, this time with the greens as beneficiaries. If that happened, Merkel pressure to yield the leadership of his party might be irresistible.
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