The last two presidential elections were real pieces of anthology. The 2004 was comparable to the Battle of Antietam, one of the largest and bloodiest of the Civil War. A few days before the election, I told a friend that conservative I could not see how the Democratic candidate at the time, John Kerry could lose.
Voters left so he wanted to win. This friend told me a knowing look: "We Conservatives believe the same thing for our side." He was right, and this explains the despair and anger among Democrats after the victory of George W . Bush for a second term. After the election, a disappointed voter has posted a message on classifieds site Craigslist: "I would fight against a Bush supporter to me vent.
If you are one, please let me know so that we can meet in person. I dream of you demolish. "If 2004 was comparable to the Battle of Antietam, the 2008 election - to the left, at least - was comparable to Juneteenth, the celebration of freedom and emancipation of black slaves [in reference to June 19, 1865, the date of the announcement of the abolition of slavery in Texas].
The hour of our liberation and our redemption had just struck. Even many Republicans hostile to Obama realized that we were witnessing an extraordinary event. What about the election of 2012? Wake me when it's all over. Unlike 2004, there is not much suspense. Barack Obama will win almost certainly, for the simple reason that in general the past presidents earn.
Recent history shows that the only exception to the rule have faced fiercely contested primaries: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush Sr. in 1992. Not since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to find the only president not to have won a second term without having to face a tough opponent in the primaries.
Certainly, Obama is facing an economic downturn, but that did not stop others before him to be reelected. The country was still in an economic crisis in 1936, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was reelected masterfully. Ronald Reagan won in 49 states [50] in 1984, while the unemployment rate over 7%.
If his party is united, an outgoing president can survive - easily - in a recession, as long as encouraging signs of hope that the worst is behind us. All this is hardly exciting, but it's reality. Another reality is that Obama has going for it demographics. Obviously, it's hard to convince white voters, especially men - but it remains very much.
In 2012, Latinos and young people represent a larger share of the electorate in 2008, and one sees on the horizon any Republican can seriously compete with Obama to attract their votes. In fact, no Republican ever so slightly with the political skills of Obama on the horizon. The election of 2012, if not tight, do not unleash the passions as in 2004.
For lack of inspiration, it does not cause the enthusiasm of 2008. Obama will argue that he has avoided economic collapse and ripped the Congress of the necessary laws. He also serves the scarecrow of a republican government under the influence of ultraconservative movement Tea Party. But he will never return to the breath of exhilarating 2008.
The Democrats are now normal that we have a black president, which is not called George W. Bush. These are things that excite us much more. Two years of President Obama have clearly shown that a progressive in the White House can do or not do. It is able to pass a reform of Medicare, even if not perfect, and to appoint Supreme Court justices in favor of abortion.
But he is unable to close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay. There was a time when the Left believed that there was no limit to what Obama could do. Today, this limit has a name: John Boehner, the Republican chairman of the House of Representatives. It is of course possible that an element comes spice Campaign 2012: Sarah Palin's nomination - or some fanatic less known - by the Republican Party.
A Palin candidacy would have the power and dignity of a reality TV show. But it is unlikely. The Republican Party leadership is too hierarchical, too traditional, too cautious - in short, too boring. Too bad. With any luck, in the fall, we will see perhaps a presidential campaign in Bahrain absolutely fascinating. 
Voters left so he wanted to win. This friend told me a knowing look: "We Conservatives believe the same thing for our side." He was right, and this explains the despair and anger among Democrats after the victory of George W . Bush for a second term. After the election, a disappointed voter has posted a message on classifieds site Craigslist: "I would fight against a Bush supporter to me vent.
If you are one, please let me know so that we can meet in person. I dream of you demolish. "If 2004 was comparable to the Battle of Antietam, the 2008 election - to the left, at least - was comparable to Juneteenth, the celebration of freedom and emancipation of black slaves [in reference to June 19, 1865, the date of the announcement of the abolition of slavery in Texas].
The hour of our liberation and our redemption had just struck. Even many Republicans hostile to Obama realized that we were witnessing an extraordinary event. What about the election of 2012? Wake me when it's all over. Unlike 2004, there is not much suspense. Barack Obama will win almost certainly, for the simple reason that in general the past presidents earn.
Recent history shows that the only exception to the rule have faced fiercely contested primaries: Gerald Ford in 1976, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George Bush Sr. in 1992. Not since Herbert Hoover in 1932 to find the only president not to have won a second term without having to face a tough opponent in the primaries.
Certainly, Obama is facing an economic downturn, but that did not stop others before him to be reelected. The country was still in an economic crisis in 1936, when Franklin D. Roosevelt was reelected masterfully. Ronald Reagan won in 49 states [50] in 1984, while the unemployment rate over 7%.
If his party is united, an outgoing president can survive - easily - in a recession, as long as encouraging signs of hope that the worst is behind us. All this is hardly exciting, but it's reality. Another reality is that Obama has going for it demographics. Obviously, it's hard to convince white voters, especially men - but it remains very much.
In 2012, Latinos and young people represent a larger share of the electorate in 2008, and one sees on the horizon any Republican can seriously compete with Obama to attract their votes. In fact, no Republican ever so slightly with the political skills of Obama on the horizon. The election of 2012, if not tight, do not unleash the passions as in 2004.
For lack of inspiration, it does not cause the enthusiasm of 2008. Obama will argue that he has avoided economic collapse and ripped the Congress of the necessary laws. He also serves the scarecrow of a republican government under the influence of ultraconservative movement Tea Party. But he will never return to the breath of exhilarating 2008.
The Democrats are now normal that we have a black president, which is not called George W. Bush. These are things that excite us much more. Two years of President Obama have clearly shown that a progressive in the White House can do or not do. It is able to pass a reform of Medicare, even if not perfect, and to appoint Supreme Court justices in favor of abortion.
But he is unable to close the detention center at Guantanamo Bay. There was a time when the Left believed that there was no limit to what Obama could do. Today, this limit has a name: John Boehner, the Republican chairman of the House of Representatives. It is of course possible that an element comes spice Campaign 2012: Sarah Palin's nomination - or some fanatic less known - by the Republican Party.
A Palin candidacy would have the power and dignity of a reality TV show. But it is unlikely. The Republican Party leadership is too hierarchical, too traditional, too cautious - in short, too boring. Too bad. With any luck, in the fall, we will see perhaps a presidential campaign in Bahrain absolutely fascinating.
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