Friday, March 11, 2011

FRANCE - Why Marine Le Pen will not enter the Elysee

According to a survey [released March 7 by Le Parisien], if the president were held today in France, Marine Le Pen, candidate of the extreme right, would turn heads in the first round. The information is not worthless, but it should not be overestimated. Indeed, the poll assumed that Martine Aubry represent the Socialists.

However, these have not yet nominated their candidate. And, according to other surveys, Dominique Strauss-Kahn, who currently stands and has the support of voters. Therefore, if he ran, the scenario was quite different. Moreover, in current circumstances, it would be harder to win the primaries as socialists win the presidency.

The last survey date, however, does confirm what we have long known: President Sarkozy does not like the National Front and attracts many protest votes. It is too early to answer the question rich in suspense involved the brutal rise of Marine Le Pen: Sarkozy seek it ultimately strengthen deliberately leader of the Front National in handling issues that are dear to the latter, because he hopes to face off in the second round, knowing he would have no chance against Strauss-Kahn? There are only a few clues to that effect, not evidence.

It would be a pact with the devil, morally reprehensible, but that would be infallible as in 2002, the second round, even the left would vote for the candidate of the right, for the sole purpose to undermine the extreme right. On the one hand, it is reassuring to know that Marine Le Pen has no chance, even though it would in one year, the favorite politician of the French.

But then again, this raises questions about the fairness of universal suffrage in two rounds. If he is guarantor of stability at the cost of representativity. Questions which, basically, nobody's outside Marine Le Pen.

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