Monday, April 25, 2011

Fujimori, Humala leads in first poll

The nationalist Ollanta Humala takes out six percentage points in voting intentions to the right Keiko Fujimori in the absence of 41 days for the second round of Peruvian presidential elections, according to a first national survey firm Ipsos Apoyo. Humala has 42 percent support, versus 36 of Fujimori.

A 12 percent likely to vote said blank, while 10 percent undecided. The questions allowed us to detect most of those who voted in the first round by Pedro Pablo Kucyznski liberal and conservative Luis Castaneda, who were third and fifth, respectively, began to lean toward the right candidate, while those who did by the centrist Alejandro Toledo, fourth, go left.

In all three cases, however, the positions are divided and there are significant fractions of between 19 and 24 percent, who are inclined to vote blank. "Humala has taken the lead thanks to male voters, over 25 years, provincial and grassroots sectors. Fujimori, however, is the favorite of female voters, those under 25, people in Lima and socioeconomic levels A and B (the richest), "said the director of Ipsos Apoyo, Alfredo Torres.

The nationalist leader has made most think he will not close the Congress (63 versus 25 percent), which seek to perpetuate themselves in power (50 against 39), but that does not receive funding from Hugo Chavez (48 against 39), or that will not join the bloc led by Venezuelan (47 against 42).

Fujimori, meanwhile, is convinced he will not release those convicted of corruption (61 vs. 29 percent) or for human rights (60 versus 30), nor the former aide Vladimiro Montesinos (61 against 32) but not I believe a promise that will not release his father, former President Alberto Fujimori (68 to 26).

Humala is ahead in all geographic locations in the country, except in Lima, as well as socio-economic sectors C, D and E, where the majority of the population. 37 percent of respondents said they were absolutely certain to vote for Humala and 30 percent that will do it for Fujimori. In contrast, 35 percent said they would never vote for the former and 38 percent never do it in the second.

For Torres, the proposals concerning the continuation or not the economic model only important for a minority. Rather, "can see a matching claim for a more effective state role in the defense of public safety and combating poverty." This is the first survey published by a prestigious firm after April 10 Fujimori, Humala and agree to the final round of the June 5 at 27 and 20 percent of the votes cast, respectively.

The survey on a sample of 1,802 people, has a confidence level of 95 percent.

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