Sunday, April 17, 2011

The Accidental Autocrat

Eleven years ago, shortly before the death of President Hafez al-Assad, the Syrians were distracted by a joke in which God sent the angel of death so that the autocrat answer for their actions. But the angel returned to heaven beaten by the Syrian secret police. "Oh, no, God said terrified. Would not you've said who sent you? ".

Bashar al-Assad, Hafez's son, seems determined to leave little in terms of repression Zine El Abidine Ben Ali, the Tunisian president, who fled to Saudi Arabia, and Hosni Mubarak, Egyptian President overthrown on 11 February. The son Asad probably never thought would happen to his father.

What he said, would be the ophthalmology field in which specialized and then took him to London. But the young Bashar could not see the future. On January 21, 1994, a car accident on the road leading to Damascus airport claimed the life of Hafez's favorite son, Basil, called to be the successor, Bashar had to return to Syria to prepare for when the angel of death come down to settle accounts Hafez.

Bashar succeeded his father as an accidental autocrat, but now is doing well. The Asad father, a member of the Baath regime in Syria instructing since 1963, founded a dynasty that has been more than four decades in power. In 1970, when he was defense minister, gave a blow which was the tenth since Syria gained independence from France in 1946, and its position was consolidated in 1973 with the surprise attack directed against Israel in the Yom Kippur War.

In his authorized biography does not say that it was he who lost the Golan Heights, occupied since 1967 by Israel. On the contrary, it highlights the initial success, then defeat, of the 1973 offensive against Israel. Asad's Syria The son looks at one thing to Tunisia Ben Ali, Egypt's Mubarak, Gaddafi's Libya and Yemen's Saleh: the power is in the hands of a family.

The Ben Ali sent 23 years, the Mubarak, 30; the aim to meet Gaddafi 42, and Saleh are on track 33. The Assad's Syria also seems, but with the roles reversed, to Bahrain, where a Sunni king rules a Shiite-majority country. The Assad family belongs to the Alawite minority (11%) which was used by the French as shock troops against the Sunni majority (over 70%).

To consolidate his power, The father Asad leaned against the Alawi, with whom he shared the political and military power. A system-like Saddam Hussein, Baathist also in Iraq, who in 1982 crushed (between 10,000 and 20,000 dead) an uprising of the Muslim Brotherhood (Sunni) in Hama. For the Sunnis, the Shia-Alawi-rama is a heretical sect.

But Syria is not Tunisia and Egypt, and Libya, and Yemen, and Bahrain. Why is the current president does not seem to falter despite the fact that, like Gaddafi, also shoots his own people? First, because, indeed, shoot. And second, because the outside is not seen with the same eyes that Gaddafi.

Syria is a key country in the web of alliances that was woven for three decades: first, in 1978, with peace between Israel and Egypt, then left for Syria, then with the fall of the Shah of Iran in 1979, which came Tehran to Damascus, and finally with the Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982, Hezbollah became an ally of Iran.

Now, if the Syrian regime fell, the board change. Washington yesterday asked the Syrian regime to end the repression, but, as explained in Time Richard Haas, president of the Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. influence in Syria is not the same as in Tunisia and Egypt, where he was decisive.

And what about Israel? Although Syria is his arch nemesis, it does not seem to be the work of a regime change in the friendly country of its worst enemies (Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas), which could benefit the Islamists. Since Europe is not tight. The British Conservative government, which has led international intervention in Libya, Syria is not belligerent.

Nicholas Soames, president of the Conservative Middle East Council, and five other Conservative MPs visited Damascus last February, when the Syrian street and protest. And Soames then declared his "great confidence" in El Asad. Other European governments say they still trust the system to accept the reform, which is what the Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has advised the Asad.

Syria is not easy to follow the Turkish model, but what is certain is that Turkey will continue to cultivate its relations with Syria, which aims to replace Iran as an ally.

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