Friday, February 25, 2011

Ireland elects a government hamstrung by bailout conditions

Just over three million Irish are called to the polls Friday to elect a government with little room for maneuver, bound for the next four years to meet the harsh conditions imposed by the EU and the IMF in the bailout of the country. Still in shock after the foreign intervention last November in the national finances, voters go to the appointment with the certainty that the ruling Fianna Fáil (FF) will suffer unprecedented electoral setback that the conservative Fine Gael (FG ) will stay near an absolute majority, according to polls.

Beyond Friday, no one can predict what will happen in a country of just four million in total bankruptcy due to a political system that was unable to control delusions banking capitalists and builders during the period of higher economic growth its history. However, although most of the bailout bill in its financial system will come from the pockets of taxpayers, the Irish seem to have decided to hand over the reins of a government tied to a neoliberal party, traditionally linked to the upper classes.

Enda Kenny, leader of FG and who, according to the polls, is shaping the future Taoiseach (prime minister), reaffirms its commitment to reduce the public deficit to 3% of Irish GDP in 2014, although the road he says, without passing through a tax increase, which "destroy jobs", but "budget cuts." Democrat rejects training and four-year austerity plan of the present government, which has, however, with the approval of the European Union (EU) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) signed by both parties to the bailout offered last December to this country, valued at 85,000 million euros.

In this respect, conservatives have insisted throughout the campaign that that agreement is bad for Ireland and should be "renegotiated", a position he shares with the Labour Party Eamon Gilmore, second in the polls and possible future partner in the Executive Dublin. Their proposals are not radical, nor imply a shift in the politics of Dublin, with Kenny and Gilmore aspire, at best, reduce the tax rate to Ireland to repay the bailout.

Both leaders believe that it would be possible if the EU have the honor to address the plight Irish through an agreement to include all community partners, rather than one specifically designed for this country. For the radical proposals of Sinn Fein, political wing of the idle Old IRA, which called for "standing up" to the Brussels and Washington and ignore the conditions attached to the bailout to Ireland.

That's the promise that it has launched its president, Gerry Adams, if the Republican training becomes part of the Dublin Government after the general election, hinting that the option of declaring a moratorium is real. His position conflicts with the warnings of the EU and most national political parties, it maintains that no "serious consequences" if Ireland breaks with the terms of the bailout.

The message of the leader of Northern Ireland, who first presented to an election to Parliament in Dublin (Dáil), has become popular among a sector of the electorate, especially among the poorer classes. The latest polls gave the Sinn Fein 11% of the vote, which would mean a jump from five to 13 deputies, while the FF could lose more than 50 seats.

In contrast, the FG is around 40% support, which could leave you very close to the 83 seats that give an absolute majority. In this context, the Conservatives would use independent candidates to move forward with parliamentary votes, thus ignoring the Labour Party, which provide about 42 deputies.

Another of the big losers in this election could be the Green Party, junior partner of the FF since 2007, according to some surveys, it would lose its five MPs.

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