Wednesday, April 20, 2011

YEMEN - Ali Saleh can pack his bags

After the fall of the Presidents of Egypt and Tunisia, Mubarak and Ben Ali, is the turn of Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh, to be ousted by a popular revolt? His regime was an indispensable ally of the West in the fight against terrorism in general and against al-Qaida in particular. If the country is tipping into civil war, as predicted by President Saleh, the concern will be keen to Washington as in other Western capitals.

Yet, after thirty-two years in power, it is time that President Saleh retires. Poverty, strong tribal tradition and neglect of the central government have always been the ingredients of political life in Yemen, which also served as the basis for Al-Qaeda for several attacks against the United States and Saudi Arabia.

Armed groups from Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) are considered by Washington as more dangerous than Osama bin Laden network in Afghanistan-Pakistan border. What is in Yemen was instigated several failed attacks against aircraft in 2009 and 2010, and installed an imam in Yemen would be responsible for organizing the shooting at Fort Hood in November 2009.

Yemen is the poorest country in the Arab world. It was not a lot of oil and natural gas reserves are dwindling, as the water in the north. Many areas have no access to electricity. It is an underdeveloped country with very low literacy rates and record unemployment of around 35% and affects half of young people.

His company is violent, poor and rooted in its traditions. To the north are the Sunni and the Shia Zaidi, in the center there is a mix of Sufi and Salafi radicals, and the South has a separatist movement around the port of Aden. President Saleh has been trying for thirty years of governing the country by conserving tribal rivalries to the detriment of developing countries, politics and national unity.

But the ambivalence classic Washington in the region (should he prefer stability to democracy?) Rolled past the regime has violently suppressed the protests. President Saleh, who received from the United States millions of dollars for his cooperation in the fight against Islamist terrorism, is about to be abandoned by them.

Yet he persists and refuses to leave until he does not know the identity of his successor and he is hoping to cling to power until elections. This is not the first time that the Yemeni president uses cunning. Two weeks ago, he promised a new constitution granting greater powers to parliament and announced a series of concessions.

But few Yemenis are convinced of his sincerity. Why should he give his approval to his successor? It is true that political tensions linked to the country's future will not subside with the departure of the president. But the risk is even greater if Saleh clinging to power and that a bloody conflict broke out.

The country into chaos and Yemen will become a dormant state. Al-Qaida has flourished in response to an authoritarian regime backed by the Americans. In this country, as in other Arab countries, democracy is the best weapon against al-Qaida.

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