In the next forty years, Earth will have to feed 9 billion people. Cary Fowler, director of the Global Crop Diversity Trust [partnership structure between FAO and private organizations like the Rockefeller or Bill Gates, who aims to maintain the biological diversity of crop varieties], it will be of a great challenge.
Urbanization or the lack of agricultural land will not be the source of the problem. Complications will come from climate change, which will require the development of new food varieties that can withstand heat and drought. According to Fowler, this requires adapting current agricultural crops.
Or you do not change, in which case production will drop and prices will climb. Either we choose to feed otherwise the 9 billion people who inhabit the planet in 2050. John Beddington, chief scientific adviser of the British government says that "the challenge is not only increasing production sustainably by reducing emissions of greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity," but must also "make food more responsive to volatile economic climate as well." An impressive record on the subject, published by the Royal Society, gives a rather encouraging for the future of food.
A view not shared by Fowler: "We are told that we must produce more food, but there is nothing automatic in this area." Since the birth of Fowler in 1950, the percentage of cultivated land increased by 10% while the population has more than doubled. Inequalities in the distribution account for one-seventh of humanity is suffering from hunger and another seventh was too much food available.
"The irrigated area has doubled, water use has tripled, the pesticide has been multiplied by 53", asserts Fowler. It is impossible to continue to grow cultivated land, as intensive agriculture is not infinite. "We must rethink agronomy, agricultural practices and plant breeding." Section of the Royal Society dedicated to climate change argues that there is insufficient data to determine the real impact of them.
Another article claims that in 2050 the yield per hectare will be 50 to 75% higher than in 2007. Fowler imagine him, a scenario much darker and cites two examples among many others: "If we take rice, increased only 1 degree temperature at night has decreased production by 10%, and if one looks at the pollinators, the heat affects their behavior and thus contributes to a lower yield of the plantations.
"Currently, the objective of the Global Crop Diversity Trust and researchers from Stanford University (California) is 2030 a year for which data on the effects of climate change have already been established. "We can foresee a drop in maize production in southern Africa if we have similar cultures today.
In this region, maize accounts for 50% of the food, "said Fowler, who announces food crisis spectacular if nothing changes. The alternative lies in finding new varieties of plants, wild relatives of crops grown and naturally living in extreme areas. "We need to collect these plants, because we must be able to use them in future for breeding, and it takes on average ten years," he calculates.
We must add ten more years for these new varieties are ready for cultivation. New crops can be anywhere on the edge of deserts like the mountains. "I think if you go back to Portugal in a hundred years, diets are no longer the same," Fowler predicted. In the future, some crops may increase their share in world production, while others decrease.
The important thing is to save these natural treasures until they are needed to humanity. To accomplish such a task would require the world to make an effort, which is far from true. "The world leaders respond only to short-term problems. They are not interested in the question of the biological foundation of civilization is agriculture.
"
Urbanization or the lack of agricultural land will not be the source of the problem. Complications will come from climate change, which will require the development of new food varieties that can withstand heat and drought. According to Fowler, this requires adapting current agricultural crops.
Or you do not change, in which case production will drop and prices will climb. Either we choose to feed otherwise the 9 billion people who inhabit the planet in 2050. John Beddington, chief scientific adviser of the British government says that "the challenge is not only increasing production sustainably by reducing emissions of greenhouse gas emissions and preserving biodiversity," but must also "make food more responsive to volatile economic climate as well." An impressive record on the subject, published by the Royal Society, gives a rather encouraging for the future of food.
A view not shared by Fowler: "We are told that we must produce more food, but there is nothing automatic in this area." Since the birth of Fowler in 1950, the percentage of cultivated land increased by 10% while the population has more than doubled. Inequalities in the distribution account for one-seventh of humanity is suffering from hunger and another seventh was too much food available.
"The irrigated area has doubled, water use has tripled, the pesticide has been multiplied by 53", asserts Fowler. It is impossible to continue to grow cultivated land, as intensive agriculture is not infinite. "We must rethink agronomy, agricultural practices and plant breeding." Section of the Royal Society dedicated to climate change argues that there is insufficient data to determine the real impact of them.
Another article claims that in 2050 the yield per hectare will be 50 to 75% higher than in 2007. Fowler imagine him, a scenario much darker and cites two examples among many others: "If we take rice, increased only 1 degree temperature at night has decreased production by 10%, and if one looks at the pollinators, the heat affects their behavior and thus contributes to a lower yield of the plantations.
"Currently, the objective of the Global Crop Diversity Trust and researchers from Stanford University (California) is 2030 a year for which data on the effects of climate change have already been established. "We can foresee a drop in maize production in southern Africa if we have similar cultures today.
In this region, maize accounts for 50% of the food, "said Fowler, who announces food crisis spectacular if nothing changes. The alternative lies in finding new varieties of plants, wild relatives of crops grown and naturally living in extreme areas. "We need to collect these plants, because we must be able to use them in future for breeding, and it takes on average ten years," he calculates.
We must add ten more years for these new varieties are ready for cultivation. New crops can be anywhere on the edge of deserts like the mountains. "I think if you go back to Portugal in a hundred years, diets are no longer the same," Fowler predicted. In the future, some crops may increase their share in world production, while others decrease.
The important thing is to save these natural treasures until they are needed to humanity. To accomplish such a task would require the world to make an effort, which is far from true. "The world leaders respond only to short-term problems. They are not interested in the question of the biological foundation of civilization is agriculture.
"
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